Permanente, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

377
FXUS65 KVEF 132012
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
115 PM PDT Sun Apr 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of the week
along with some gusty winds at times. Low confidence in the forecast
late-week, as we continue to assess the possibility for a return of
precipitation chances, gusty winds, and lower temperatures.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday.
The trough that brought the cooler temperatures to the region today
is expected to form a closed low off the central California coast
Monday and eventually interact with a closed low currently off the
southern California coast. The low off the southern California coast
will eventually get kicked northeast into Arizona Tuesday as an open
wave. As this shortwave move through it is expected to increase the
PWs to around 150 to 200 percent of normal; however, there is very
little in the way of forcing as much of the energy should remain
east of Mohave County. Still, a few light rain showers will be
possible Tuesday over the higher terrain of Mohave County with
amounts generally a few hundredths or less. Elsewhere, temperatures
will remain several degrees above normal through Tuesday keep the
Heat Risk in the "Minor" category.


.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Next Weekend.

After a brief break in the action Wednesday: another, more potent
system may impact the region late Thursday into the weekend. In the
past 24 hours, models have taken a turn and are now trending towards
a solution where a Pacific Northwest low digs into the region and
phases with a low sitting off the southern California coast, rapidly
deepening somewhere over the western US as it does so. There is
significant model differences in how this will play out, then add in
the inherent low confidence in models resolving phasing systems-
there is high uncertainty in the forecast Thursday through the
weekend. The current "worst case" 90th percentile 48hr QPF has
significantly increased in the past 24 hours and suggest higher
impacts than what it was showing yesterday. There is now a 30%
chance for over 0.50inch of rain through the weekend in parts of
southern Nevada and western Arizona when it was showing less than
10% regionally at this time yesterday. Also of note, the spread in
high temperatures on Friday is anywhere from 5-10 degrees above
normal to 10-15 below normal. Winds would be the other concern with
this system as it deepens over the area- especially if we see the
colder solution (a significant drop in temperatures would suggest
gusty winds with a strong temperature gradient). All this to say-
there is potential for impactful weather the end of next week but
it`s too early to say if it will happen or what those impacts would
look like. Changes are expected in probabilities for impacts and
weather details with this system- Stay tuned!
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Northerly winds around 10 knots with a few higher gusts
should flop over to northeasterly with speeds decreasing by noon,
although a few stray northeasterly gusts cannot be ruled out. Winds
should come back around to southwesterly late this afternoon, but
this is likely to be short lived, with northeasterly winds returning
overnight and persisting through much of Monday. Speeds will likely
exceed 10 knots at least 25% of the time. No operationally
significant clouds or weather expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Northerly winds have
spread across the southern Great Basin and the northern Mojave
Desert this morning, with the strongest gusts of 20 to 30 knots
expected in the higher terrain from Inyo County eastward through
Lincoln County. Meanwhile, southwesterly winds gusts around 20 knots
will persist in Mohave County and the lower Colorado River Valley.
Tonight, the strongest northerly gusts of 15 to 25 knots are
expected in the favored terrain areas from southern Lincoln County
through the Laughlin/Bullhead City area. Winds are expected to
weaken on Monday and become easterly to southeasterly over much of
the region. No operationally significant clouds or weather expected.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Nickerson
AVIATION...Morgan

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